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Wednesday, 08 September 2010
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Power Crisis that Will not go Away

M A Pai

In the media we generally hear about how generating capacity has increased, how consumption has increased etc but not whether the power sector is able to meet the PEAK demand. Thus with a generating capacity of 150GW (1GW=1000MW) and estimated peak demand of 103GW, we can serve a peak load of only 93GW. In most countries, which are economically developed, a peak demand of close to 80% of generation capacity is met with a high degree of reliability. Even if we reach a figure of 70% we can meet the peak demand. This requires a high degree of coordination between supply of fuel, its transportation and the usage. Thus it is akin to a supply chain management model in the IT sector mere Increase in energy consum-ption in terms of MWh while useful is not a true indicator and does not fully explain why we have the power cuts across the country. There in lies the essentials of the power crisis that India faces.


The fact that we are doing OK industrially is because of captive power plants (notably in IT sectors) and power outages for the industrial sector are kept minimal. The people who suffer are the average citizens both urban and rural. Hence they need to resort to inverters if they can afford .A country rich with talent in power deserves better. True rural electrification seems to be a distant dream.

On the positive side a novel scheme of maintaining frequency close to 50 cycles per second has helped the grid operation. It is important therefore for the public to know why the peak demand is not met with available generation capacity.

Instead of chasing solar power, solar lantern technology etc the country should concentrate on running the grid efficiently with good engineering skill set either available readily or can be generated internally.

 What are the causes that are responsible for this crisis?

 
  • Poor Maintenance practices throughout the country resulting in generation as well as transmission outages.
  • Not learning enough from past massive power failures through careful system analysis.
  • Losses both due to inefficient transmission system and distribution (T and D) layout and theft. Giving free power also distorts the load curve since free power drawn at peak period results in denying power to others.
  • Market reform may help if there is diversity in peak demand.

 

This can be done with power being accorded the same status as the recent UID and NIHA authorities. If things go the way as they are the country will never be self sufficient in the power sector for a very long time to come.

This is based on past performance about which data is available fro    m te ministry of power’s web sites. Except for on going projects in Tamil Nadu, new projects in nuclear power will not be realty till 2020. With power being largely a state monopoly and progress being slow it is difficult to catch up.  Time has come to privatise the power sector in generation, transmission and distribution. Such a decision will be as bold as the economic liberalisation that took place nearly 20 years ago and time to act is now.                 

Dr M A Pai is Professor Emeritus at University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign USA and was on the Faculty of IIT Kanpur 1963-81

 
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